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A specialist intelligence advisory

Country risk forecasting solutions to mitigate threats and maximise opportunities
in emerging and frontier markets across Africa, Asia, and the Middle East.




Uncertainty is at an all time high. Instability, insecurity, and conflict are intensifying globally, exacerbated by climate change.
In a complex and multi-polar world, your risk management strategies should go beyond merely avoiding risk.



Be risk aware.
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We focus on country risk in emerging and frontier markets to create a sustainable competitive advantage for our clients across a broad spectrum of industries.

Our specialist country risk solutions consider interconnected risk perils across the political, economic, and security environment.

We track indicators, map scenarios, and plot the risk trajectory to help you navigate risk and maximise opportunity.




PANGEA-RISK ANIMATED INFOGRAPHICS

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AFRICAN DEBT BINGE HITS PAUSE BUTTON

31 July 2024

WESTERN INVESTORS SEEK ANGOLAN OPPORTUNITY

09 July 2024

COMMON FRAMEWORK LESSONS LEARNED

12 June 2024

WHAT NEXT FOR SOUTH AFRICA’S MINING SECTOR?

06 June 2024

IMPACT OF EAST AFRICA’S FLOODS

08 May 2024

AFRICAN SOVEREIGN DEBT: STEPPING BACK FROM THE EDGE

16 Apr 2024

SENEGAL’S NEW GOVERNMENT FACES REALITY CHECK

10 Apr 2024

AFRICAN FOOD INSECURITY SPIKES

05 Apr 2024

SENEGAL’S HIGH STAKES ELECTION

26 Mar 2024

UAE STEPS UP AFRICAN INVESTMENTS

05 Mar 2024

GHANA COCOA SLUMP

27 Feb 2024

PANGEA-RISK LAUNCHES CLIMATE INSIGHT

20 Feb 2024

PANGEA-RISK FREE-TO-READ INSIGHT BRIEFINGS

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MONTHLY INSIGHT - AUGUST 2024

Thu, 29 August 2024

In August, we mark the ninth anniversary of Pangea-Risk. As we enter a tenth operational year, we are extending coverage of our flagship country risk solution, Insight, to new markets in Central Asia, South Asia, and the Caucasus region. This latest expansion builds on our already established focus on Africa and the Middle East. We mark our anniversary by expanding coverage of the Insight platform to new emerging and frontier markets and applying our market-tested and indicator-driven quantitative risk ratings to all countries around the world.


MARITIME INSIGHT: STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND HORN OF AFRICA EXPOSED TO REGIONAL CONFLICT RISKS

Thu, 15 August 2024

The recent spate of attacks is part of an escalating tit-for-tat cycle of violence between Israel, the US, Iran and regional militant movements. Hostilities have risen sharply after the Israeli military killed senior Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran just hours after killing a senior Hezbollah official in Beirut in late July. Iran is expected to calibrate its retaliation carefully to avoid full-scale war, but any miscalculation could still escalate into a broader conflict. This would inevitably spill over into other parts of the region, including compounding maritime insecurity in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, instability has contributed to a resurgence of piracy in the Horn of Africa, particularly as groups like the Houthis and Al Shabaab allegedly explore deeper cooperation.


SUDAN: PARAMILITARY RIVALS ADVANCE AMID FAILED PEACE EFFORTS AND RUSSIAN REALIGNMENT

Wed, 14 August 2024

Various mediation efforts proliferate as competing interests among peace brokers undermine a unified approach. Meanwhile, Russia has shifted its support from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) to the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), aligning with Iran as the conflict escalates. This strategic pivot occurs alongside the RSF's capture of key territories in Sennar and Darfur, adding complexity to the already stalled peace process. Sudan’s economy is projected to contract further in 2024, with any chance of recovery dependent on the uncertain prospects for peace amid ongoing instability and weak institutional capacities.


MONTHLY INSIGHT - JULY 2024

Wed, 31 July 2024

In July, a fifth African country returned to the Eurobond market for the first time in two years. The latest round of bond bingeing may stop there, at least for now, for two reasons. Firstly, uncertainty over the outcome of the US elections is making African treasuries anxious, driving many sovereigns to stock up on gold reserves. Secondly, mounting domestic resistance to strict fiscal conditionalities imposed by the IMF under programmes that have been key to the Eurobonds’ success will make Africa’s policymakers more cautious in adopting austerity to pay back their debt.


IRAN: MODERATE PRESIDENT TO BE CONSTRAINED BY PARLIAMENT AND SUPREME LEADER'S CONTROL

Wed, 10 July 2024

Reformist voters, who largely boycotted the 28 June special presidential election due to doubts about its potential for change, rallied in the 5 July runoff to secure an unexpected victory for reformist Masoud Pezeshkian. Pezeshkian's campaign emphasised social reforms, economic improvement, and renewed nuclear negotiations. However, his ability to implement these changes is contingent upon approval from the Supreme Leader and support from a conservative-dominated parliament, presenting substantial challenges. The election could lead to increased engagement with the United States and a further easing tension with Gulf states, though it is unlikely to cause a rift between Iran and its MAIN allies, Russia and China.


SOUTH AFRICA: CABINET TO PRIORITISE REFORM AGENDA AND FISCAL PRUDENCE, DESPITE INTERNAL DISCORD

Thu, 04 July 2024

South Africa’s new cabinet will prioritise reform of state-owned enterprises in the power and logistics sectors. The new cabinet’s impact on reform momentum remains cautiously optimistic but complex due to potential internal disagreements and competing interests posing risks to cohesive governance. Despite these challenges, coalition partners are likely to align on critical areas such as fiscal consolidation, structural reforms, and improving public service delivery, which are expected to create a more business-friendly environment, encouraging investment and economic expansion.


MONTHLY INSIGHT - JUNE 2024

Mon, 01 July 2024

Africa’s youth from Senegal to Kenya to South Africa is feeling politically and economically marginalised under entrenched ruling elites. With more landmark elections scheduled for the second half of this year, and the cost of living stubbornly high, Africa’s leaders have been reminded of the perils of so-called “jobless growth”, where booming economies offer little dividend to their population. A spree of post-pandemic fiscal consolidation is driving socio-economic grievances not only in Africa, but across emerging markets globally, as evidenced by a failed coup attempt in Bolivia and an upset election result in India in June.


MARITIME INSIGHT: RED SEA TRADE DIVERSIONS DRIVE FRESH INVESTMENT IN AFRICAN PORTS

Thu, 20 June 2024

Houthi attacks in the Western Indian Ocean have continued to escalate, disrupting maritime traffic and global trade routes, leading stakeholders to consider alternative routes around the African continent. This shift has increased the demand for services at African ports, producing new opportunities and simultaneously exposing infrastructural deficiencies. Ports in Mauritius, Madagascar, and Mozambique have benefited from their strategic locations, whereas South African ports have struggled with increased traffic due to outdated infrastructure and poor management. Additionally, global investors are increasingly targeting African ports for development, driven by the need to enhance capacity and international connectivity.


SOUTH AFRICA: UNITY GOVERNMENT TO ACCELERATE ECONOMIC REFORMS AMID ANTICIPATED UNREST

Mon, 17 June 2024

South Africa is entering a new political era with the formation of a Government of National Unity between the previously ruling African National Congress (ANC) and the opposition Democratic Alliance (DA). This historic coalition, finalised amidst last-minute negotiations, represents a substantial compromise from both sides and aims to stabilise governance at both national and provincial levels. President Cyril Ramaphosa’s broad policy agenda, centring around fiscal tightening and addressing infrastructure problems, will likely remain intact. However, the coalition is expected to be fragile. It will be regularly tested by radical parties outside the GNU, who may increase street mobilisation.


MONTHLY INSIGHT - MAY 2024

Thu, 30 May 2024

China’s relationship with Africa is now almost completely dominated by critical minerals to drive the global energy transition and revive China’s own flagging economy. This renewed focus on minerals has come at the expense of sovereign lending and much-touted public-private-partnerships (PPP) under the Chinese flagship Belt and Road Initiative infrastructure strategy. This past month, I witnessed the impact of this shifting trend in both East Africa and the global commodities hub of Amsterdam.


SPECIAL REPORT: GROWING DEMAND FOR AFRICA’S CRITICAL MINERALS INTENSIFIES GEOPOLITICAL RIVALRIES

Thu, 23 May 2024

The global critical minerals market is adapting to heightened demand from renewable energy sectors and Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) technologies, leading to growing shifts in geopolitical dynamics. This includes major powers diversifying sources away from dominant suppliers such as China due to recent global events like the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In response, regions rich in minerals, such as Africa and the Middle East, are becoming focal points for new mining investments and strategic partnerships. Simultaneously, the United States and European Union Countries are reformulating policies to secure and stabilise mineral supply chains, reflecting the increasing importance of these resources for future technological advancements and economic security.


IRAN: PRESIDENT RAISI'S SUDDEN DEATH UNLIKELY TO ALTER EXTERNAL AND DOMESTIC POLICIES

Tue, 21 May 2024

The unexpected demise of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash has sent shockwaves across the Middle East and the world. However, its impact on Iran’s strategic direction in both domestic and foreign policy is expected to be minimal. This is primarily due to the fact that Raisi's authority, despite his presidential title, was largely curtailed by Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who holds the ultimate power in the Islamic Republic. The succession dynamics now become crucial, potentially testing the administration's stability and its strategic pursuits, including Iran’s efforts to expand its influence.


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IN THE NEWS

...
Campaign to Extend Zimbabwean Leader’s Rule Gains Momentum

Wednesday, 07 August 2024

CEO Robert Besseling speaks to Bloomberg about the outlook for President Mnangagwa beyond his second term.

View the original here
...
What's at Stake if Wider Mideast War Erupts?

Friday, 02 August 2024

Bilal Bassiouni, Head of Risk Forecasting, speaks to Energy Intelligence about the implications of a Middle East war on energy assets and critical infrastructure.

View the original here
...
Ethiopia's IMF Reward for Scrapping Dollar Peg Comes With a Price Shock

Tuesday, 30 July 2024

Bilal Bassiouni, Head of Risk Forecasting, comments on Ethiopia’s decision to float its currency in Bloomberg’s Next Africa newsletter.

View the original here

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